Europe has 69 e-fuel projects planned for the shipping sector but only six are currently operational, leaving the EU at risk of ceding leadership in green maritime fuels to China. The project pipeline could deliver zero-emission fuels at scale by 2033, but the vast majority remain stuck in early development without the regulatory certainty needed to reach final investment decisions.
The gap between ambition and reality reflects a deeper structural problem. FuelEU Maritime and the revised Renewable Energy Directive have set binding greenhouse gas intensity targets and sub-quotas for renewable fuels of non-biological origin, yet the implementing acts and certification frameworks that would give developers bankable revenue visibility are still being finalised. Without clear rules on how e-methanol, e-ammonia, and other synthetic fuels count toward compliance, project finance remains elusive.
China faces no such paralysis. State-backed developers are advancing integrated green hydrogen and e-fuel complexes at coastal hubs, leveraging domestic electrolyser supply chains and streamlined permitting. Chinese ports are already bunkering methanol-fuelled vessels, and the country’s shipyards hold a commanding share of alternative-fuel newbuild orders. The result is a feedback loop: domestic demand pulls through domestic supply, while European projects wait for policy clarity.
For European industry, the stakes extend beyond fuel supply. Shipowners ordering dual-fuel vessels need confidence that green fuel will be available at competitive prices on their routes. Engine manufacturers and fuel cell developers need volume to drive down costs. If the EU project pipeline stalls, the continent’s maritime technology cluster — historically a global leader — risks becoming a customer of Chinese fuel and Chinese-built propulsion systems rather than a supplier.
Closing the gap requires more than additional targets. Accelerated permitting for e-fuel plants, contracts-for-difference or similar revenue stabilisation mechanisms, and a functioning book-and-claim system for renewable fuel certificates would convert the existing project pipeline into operating capacity. The regulatory architecture exists; the missing piece is the operational detail that turns policy into investable projects.
Read the full report at CleanTechnica.